The "tipping point" depends on the rate of climate change — and above all the stability of Antarctica.

These are the conclusions reached in a recently published study partly funded by the Pentagon's Strategic Environmental Research and Development Programme.

The United States has military installations or assets on a number of Pacific Islands.

The study was conducted by researchers from the US Geological Survey, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and several other institutions in the United States, Monaco and the Netherlands.

In the worst case, the paper says, it could come before 2030.

Most studies on the resilience of these islands to sea-level rise have projected that they will experience minimal inundation impacts until at least the end of the 21st century.

However, these have not taken into account the additional hazard of wave-driven overwash or its impact on freshwater availability.

The danger comes because of the increasing occurrence of large waves that spill across the island and sink into its groundwater.

However, a prominent expert in sea-level rise who was not involved in the study, Bob Kopp of Rutgers University, questioned that especially dire finding.

"They're asking the right questions, they're doing the right sorts of analysis, but I'm a little sceptical of some of their early-century dates for some things," Kopp said in an interview with The Washington Post.

Less dire scenarios predict the critical moment will come in the decade between 2030 and 2040 for a high warming scenario without Antarctic collapse, or 2055 to 2065 for a middle-range warming scenario.

Kopp said the middle scenario is consistent with what is known, and provided an analysis suggesting that while there is indeed a major threat, it won't arrive as soon as 2030 but could by the 2050s.

Source

• advances.sciencemag.org
• washingtonpost.com
• sputniknews.com
• impactlab.org
• Image: sputniknews.com

"I don't think the biblical deluge is just a fairy tale," Terence J Hughes, a retired University of Maine glaciologist living in South Dakota, told the New York Times.

"I think some kind of major flood happened all over the world, and it left an indelible imprint on the collective memory of mankind that got preserved in these stories."

n some ways, Hughes is a surprising figure to be quoted by the NYT.

A Newsweek article on him three years ago, credited Hughes with predicting the likely collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet as early as 1973.

But he is a contrarian, who doesn't consider climate change to be a great concern.

In fact, according to Newsweek he sees upsides including that carbon dioxide is good for plants, thawed permafrost could be farmed, and rebuilding coastal cities would create jobs.

The New York Times' interest in Hughes was as part of a series produced by a team visiting Antarctica.

His quote came in an article about the risks of ice sheets melting and coastal cities being inundated by rising seas.

According to the article the great flood of the Bible - and of other early literature - happened at the end of the last ice age.

Beginning 25,000 years ago ice sheets began to melt and the sea level started rising. Over thousands of years, coastlines receded by as much as 160km.

If the sea level rise from melting ice sheets under way now turned out to be as fast as the worst-case projections, "it could lead to a catastrophe without parallel in the history of civilisation," the Times said.

The impact of climate change on Antarctica is a key interest of New Zealand scientists, with the latest research to be presented at the New Zealand Antarctic Science Conference in Dunedin in late June. Continue reading

Source and Image

• Article by Michael Daly in Stuff

The National Science Foundation, (NSF) which manages the U.S. Antarctic Programme, has announced that a steady decline in church-going at U.S. Antarctic stations means the programme can no longer support the services of Catholic priests through New Zealand's Catholic Diocese of Christchurch's Antarctic Chaplaincy Programme.

The Diocese has been informed that McMurdo Station will continue to have the services of a Military Chaplaincy who will provide interdenominational religious services and personal support to the population.

NSF has worked with Fr Dan Doyle, Antarctic Chaplaincy co-ordinator on the transition that will bring an end to a 57-year relationship between the Diocese and the Programme.

Recent years have seen a steady decline, both in attendance at the Chapel of the Snows at McMurdo Station and in the numbers of residents availing themselves of services of the chaplains, who are based there from October until February each summer season.

The chaplains have been aware for some time of the declining religiosity of the Antarctic population, and have had made considerable efforts to provide relevant and timely religious opportunities to the population.

In a press release Doyle said the Diocese of Christchurch "has been proud to be able to support this mission to the 'ends of the earth', and is grateful for the services of many priests who have had the privilege to serve the men and women of Antarctica."

"The Catholic priests who served in Antarctica have enjoyed the working relationship with the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Antarctic Programme, and the U.S. Military," he said.

"Many blessings have been received and shared, and the Catholic Church has been much enriched by the opportunities that this mission has offered."

The south to Antarctica church service is being led by the acting Dean Ven Nick Mountford.

Weather dependent, staff and scientists will start travelling to Scott Base and McMurdo Station from Monday.

Christchurch acts as the logistics hub for the New Zealand, US, Italian and Korean Antarctic programmes which, combined with other Antarctic related activities, contribute more than $100 million per year into the local economy. Continue reading

He has already completed two trips to Antarctica in 2005 and 2007, as one of the five Catholic priests who work as chaplains to all denominations there during the summer season.

Fr Brian loves history and is fascinated by the relics from the great explorers, which are still where they were left on the frozen continent more than 100 years ago.

As well as holding mass in the ecumenical Church of Snow, he will offer pastoral care to between 1000 and 1200 workers staying at the base, no matter what their religion.

The summer temperature hovers between minus one and minus six degrees Celsius.

Continue reading

Holy Family's Father Brian Fennessy is hoping he passes the stringent medical tests again so he can do another four-week stint at American Research Centre McMurdo Station in November.

He has already completed two trips, in 2005 and 2007, as one of the five Catholic priests who work as chaplains to all denominations there during the summer season. Continue reading